The state of the "race" at this point is pretty much the same as it was back in November when I wrote the first part of this series. The biggest change is the introduction of Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. as a potential top-tier contender.
Jon Huntsman Jr.:
He is very popular in his home state (arguably the most popular governor in the country), and made headlines recently by coming out in favor of civil unions. He will probably occupy the same political space as Mitt Romney. He will appeal to the Mormons and the fiscal conservatives. His stance on civil unions will probably put him at odds with cultural conservatives outside his Mormon base. Romney similarly has no credibility with non-Mormon cultural conservatives for once being pro-gay marriage. Romney, of course, has since switched his position, but cultural conservatives can see through his insincerity on this issue. Anyway, I think Huntsman will likely end up gaining little traction, as he will end up competing for the same voters as Romney. If anything, I think he may only work to decrease Romney's chances.
Mitt Romney:
Most of what I have to say about Romney I've already said. His flip-flopping combined with the apparent introduction of Jon Huntsman Jr. will do him in. Romney appears to be going for the Hillary Clinton inevitability strategy. He has been donating a lot of money to vulnerable Republican politicians and conservative causes, no doubt hoping to get a lot of key early endorsements to make it seem as though he is the front runner early on and the inevitable nominee. Of course, as we've seen before, the inevitability strategy quickly fails as soon as the "inevitable" candidate suffers a loss.
Mike Huckabee:
I maintain that he's the true inevitable candidate. While Huntsman appears to be betting that the key to victory in the Republican primary in 2012 is securing the cultural moderates and the fiscal conservatives, Huckabee appears to be going the opposite route. True, the cultural conservatives are dying off, but I don't think they're dying off as quickly as Huntsman thinks, and they're likely to be the ones most motivated to vote in the primaries (especially the closed primaries). The bigots who think the Republican party isn't conservative enough will likely be the dominant voting block in 2012. And by 2012 the economy will likely have started to turn around, and the economic stimulus will be judged a success. Because of the success of the stimulus, Huckabee's apparent moderation on fiscal issues will be appealing.
Bobby Jindal:
I don't think he'll run this time around, and instead focus on re-election in Louisianna. If he does run in 2012, I think he'll be competing for the Palin votes.
Sarah Palin:
She's been slowly fading from the national dialogue. The only positive headline she's made lately is the formation of SarahPAC. Other than that, the few headlines about her have been negative, e.g. paying back taxes and Bristol's opposition to abstinence-only sex ed. She almost needs to challenge and beat Lisa Murkowski in a primary for U.S. Senate to regain the national spotlight and give herself the opportunity to try to be taken seriously.
Rudy Giuliani:
Nothing has changed from last time. He needs to win higher elected office (either governor or senator of New York) to be taken seriously again and fill the gap in his resume.
Newt Gingrich:
Again, not much has changed for him. He opted not to run for RNC chair, so my guess is that he'll probably run for president. The challenge for him is still to campaign on different ideas and perhaps even different issues.
Charlie Crist:
Took the ballsy step of siding with the president on the economic stimulus. I'm not sure if that helps or hurts him with regards to his 2012 chances yet. If he chooses to run for senate, he's probably not running in 2012.
Mark Sanford:
Has taken the opposite view of Charlie Crist, and has (like Bobby Jindal) refused to accept part of the stimulus money for his state. Aside from that, howerver, he has failed to stand out.
Tim Pawlenty:
Has failed to stand out at all. Has taken a decidedly non-interventionist approach to the U.S. Senate election contest in his state, choosing to not issue a certificate to the winner until Norm Coleman finally concedes. Maybe this plays well with conservatives in Minnesota, but I doubt it will mean anything to anybody outside of the land of 10,000 lakes.
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