Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Combined Veepstakes

Obama VP:
Tim Kaine 60%
Kathleen Sebelius 40%

Logic tells me that there are probably more options than these two, but my gut tells me that it will ultimately come down to these two. Bloomberg is an independent and likely won't be ratified at the convention if he's chosen. Jim Webb hasn't lobbied very hard for the veep spot. Same for Biden. Richardson was a spectacularly terrible campaigner when he was running for president. Basically, Obama has two strategies he could go with when choosing a running mate:

1. He could try to make in-roads with evangelicals, white working class men, and Southerners (Kaine).

2. He could try to make in-roads with white women and westerners (Sebelius).

I'm torn on which I think is the more effective way to go. I think Kaine helps put in play Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia (51 EVs) . Sebelius could potentially help with Kansas, Missouri, Colorado, North Dakota, and maybe even New Mexico, Montana and Nebraska (42 EVs). I think Obama's decision will ultimately come down to which strategy he thinks has the best chance of winning.


McCain VP:
Mark Sanford 40%
Charlie Crist 35%
Tim Pawlenty 25%

Joe Lieberman ruled out veepness. The others I ranked in order of how non-cartoonish their names sound.

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