100 Years

Q: President Bush has talked about our staying in Iraq for 50 years — (cut off by McCain)

McCain: Make it a hundred.

That's gonna be the statement that does McCain in. It's gonna be to him what "I voted for it before I voted against it" was to John Kerry. This statement is going to be played endlessly in advertisements from all of the liberal 527s and, no doubt, the DNC. McCain will easily be portrayed in the media as a warmonger who wants to keep the Iraq occupation going ad infinitum.

On the issue of immigration, there is no substantial difference between him and Obama. The differences between McCain and Obama on the environment will be minimal (although Obama could make the war into an environmental issue). McCain will not want to talk about health care because he has no solution for the health care crisis. He will not want to talk about the economy because economics isn't his strong suit and he knows that he looks uncomfortable talking about it. He's a national security candidate, and the war in Iraq is the top national security issue. The war is the one issue he'll want to keep talking about.

Unfortunately for him, that is also an issue Obama feels very comfortable talking about. And the more Obama beats McCain over the head with his "100 years" statement, the more people are going to side with Obama. Despite the perceived success of "the surge", most Americans still want American troops out of Iraq, and the idea that McCain wants to keep our soldiers in Iraq for 100 years is going to turn a lot of voters away from McCain and toward Obama.

To put it another way - this election is basically gonna come down to two choices: 1. Permanent military presence in Iraq, or 2. Gradual withdrawal from Iraq. It's obvious that the vast majority of the country prefers the second option, which obviously will be Obama.

And even if McCain suddenly wants to turn the discussion to a new topic, such as the economy or fiscal responsibility, Obama can always flip that back to a discussion of Iraq, and once again bring up his "100 years" statement.

Since the Democratic nomination process is still going on, Obama and McCain haven't had the chance yet to really duke it out, mono a mono. When they do finally have a chance to go head to head, it will be a battle of issues, unlike the Democratic nomination, which has been a battle of personalities. And on the issues, Obama has a clear, and significant, edge. This edge on the issues, combined with his financial edge, will make the general election ultimately not as close as polls currently suggest. As the race progresses, a gap will slowly emerge in Obama's favor, giving him a victory which will be anything but narrow.

For your viewing pleasure:

Update: Apparently I'm ahead of the curve.