Come November, Obama is going to be competitive in states that people won't expect. He's going to surprise people. Because Obama is young and new to the national political scene, he is consistently underestimated. Some of my friends have said that there is no way Obama can win in a landslide. I beg to differ. In fact, so does Eugene Robinson and Newsweek. The friends of mine are the same friends who thought Obama wouldn't win the nomination and Bloomberg would run against Hillary. Not to toot my own horn, but I think I have the better track record.
The reason Obama, come November, will be competitive in states people don't expect is that he is the Democratic version of Ronald Reagan. He is optimistic and inspiring. McCain, on the other hand, is gloomy, pessimistic, and depressing. Obama has Reagan's "teflon" quality - no attacks against him seem to stick. Obama is youthful, energetic, new, and exciting. McCain is old (would probably die in office) and on the issues that matter most to Americans, he simply offers more of the same. Obama and/or the DNC has more money than McCain and will continue to outspend him. Democratic turn-out in the primaries has been significantly higher than that in the Republican primaries.
The issues work to Obama's advantage as well. McCain has said he knows little about the economy, and it shows. Therefore, McCain will have to consistently come back to the war in Iraq. At this point, Obama can beat McCain over the head about how McCain wants to keep us there for 100 years, we're diverting resources from fighting al Qaeda, and hindering our abilities to solve problems here at home. The vast majority of Americans will hear this argument and turn towards Obama. America doesn't want a 100-year war. So whether it be the economy or the war, Obama has a leg up.
McCain will make the same tired arguments against Obama that Clinton has been making for over a year and still haven't worked. Having more "experience" and being "ready to lead on day one" aren't going to work any better in the general election.
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